Lebanon between two elections… major files await early 2027

The article argues that Lebanon has entered a long waiting phase in which major files are frozen, linked to two consecutive electoral events: the Israeli election on 27 October 2026 and the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026. It says Hezbollah is avoiding giving Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to expand the confrontation and use it electorally, while Iran is aware of oil price sensitivity before the US elections under Donald Trump and keeps the Strait of Hormuz and energy as pressure cards in the background of confrontation. After the two votes, a transitional period will extend to the end of the year, making early 2027 the first realistic date for a clearer picture of Israel's aims in southern Lebanon, the course of the US-Iranian confrontation, and the space for a Lebanese settlement covering weapons, withdrawal and security arrangements. Until then, Lebanon is described as being in the refrigerator: no final settlement and no inevitable explosion, but careful time management and waiting for the ballot boxes.