Situation assessment

During the week extending from September 21 to 24, 2026, Israel raised its level of alert and preparations in anticipation of a possible escalation with Iran, and extended its wartime emergency until October 6, amid anticipation of escalation with Iran and Lebanon. Reports included statements by Israeli officials that a new round against Iran is a matter of time, that Israel will strike Iran for the third time, and that preparations are underway with or without US participation, while asserting that there is no real chance of reaching an agreement. Reports also spoke of Israeli preparation for a wide escalation in the Gulf in which Israel may be involved, and of preparing for three scenarios with Iran, amid warnings that matters could get out of control. Domestically, questions emerged about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resorting to war as an alternative election program before the 2026 elections, with reports about US President Donald Trump's frustration with Netanyahu and a deteriorating relationship between them. A Lebanese website also reported that an Israeli site did not hold and that 40 soldiers were killed and wounded, without further details. An Israeli court sentenced a man to 55 months in prison for spying for Tehran, reports addressed Israel redrawing its naval power with Turkey and Iran at the heart of calculations, and calls were attributed to a former Israeli prime minister regarding declaring Qatar an enemy state.

Analysis: Developments this week are dominated by a dynamic of Israeli preparation and early warning regarding a possible confrontation with Iran, with indications that it could widen to other fronts, especially Lebanon and the Gulf. The series of reports about raising alert levels, extending the wartime emergency until October 6, and speaking of three scenarios suggests that Israel is operating on the basis that escalation is possible within a short time horizon, and that it wants to demonstrate both readiness and deterrence. Statements by Israeli officials, including that a new round against Iran is a matter of time, that Israel will strike Iran for the third time, and that it knows where Iran's leaders are hiding, appear partly as psychological messaging and preemptive pressure, but they also reflect actual preparation of military options. The reference to preparations with or without US participation raises the question of how certain Israel is of the American position, especially with reports of tension between Trump and Netanyahu. Talk of a wide escalation in the Gulf expands the range of possible scenarios beyond a bilateral confrontation with Iran. Domestically, the intersection between the upcoming elections and the deterioration of relations with Washington adds a further pressure factor on the decision to escalate or its timing. Meanwhile, accounts of 40 Israeli soldiers killed and wounded, and the espionage sentence for Tehran, reflect security vulnerability and internal preoccupation with the Iranian threat, while the naval power and Qatar files reflect broader strategic and diplomatic dimensions.

Outlook: Based on the available data, the main scenarios remain open without a definitive weighting. The first scenario is continued high alert and intensive preparations without an immediate transition to a wide confrontation, while keeping the military option on the table and continuing warning messages. The second scenario is a new Israeli military round against Iran, which could be limited or broader, described in reports as the third strike, and which may occur with or without US participation. The third scenario is a wider escalation involving the Gulf or Lebanon, as reflected in reports about preparation for a wide escalation in the Gulf and warnings that matters could get out of control. The extension of the state of emergency until October 6 provides a time window in which developments could occur, but the data do not determine whether a decision has actually been made. Continued talk of attempts to revive negotiations with Washington, alongside reports asserting there is no real chance of an agreement, keeps the diplomatic track marginal at present.