Situation Assessment: Lebanon Between Israeli Military Escalation in the South and Efforts to Reorder State Authority
Bottom line
Most importantly, the reader should know that Lebanon simultaneously faces an Israeli military escalation in the south and diplomatic efforts to redefine state authority, the weapons file, and UNIFIL's future. The coming course depends on whether negotiations and security arrangements in the south can prevent sliding into a wider confrontation, amid internal division and economic and social pressures that limit the government's room for maneuver.
Current situation
The Lebanese scene this week is divided between a broad Israeli military escalation in the south—including airstrikes, phosphorus shelling, explosions, burning of homes in Khiam, targeting of tents, and tank movements—and intense diplomatic and political activity on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam presented Lebanon's priorities: Israeli withdrawal, strengthening the army, and restricting weapons, along with talk of fateful decisions on the weapons file and a roadmap for the south from relief to reconstruction. In contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that the Lebanese state alone is authorized to disarm Hezbollah, while Hezbollah attacked the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations and thanked Iran. Ambiguity persists over the eighth round of negotiations, alongside the future of UNIFIL and warnings of a vacuum in the south, in addition to internal files concerning the government, Syrian-Lebanese relations, the economy, and protests.
Analysis
The news indicates two parallel and conflicting tracks in Lebanon: a military track in the south where Israeli operations escalate through shelling, targeting, and explosions, reflecting that the confrontation has shifted, according to a report, from a supporting role to total war. And a political-diplomatic track led by the prime minister from New York and Washington, focusing on restoring state authority, restricting weapons, strengthening the army, and linking the south to a reconstruction phase—consistent with the French position insisting that disarming Hezbollah is a matter for the Lebanese state. In contrast, Hezbollah opposes negotiations with Israel and adheres to a resistance discourse and Iranian support, indicating internal division over the nature of a security settlement. The UNIFIL file appears a sensitive transitional issue: there is talk of withdrawal and fear of a vacuum, versus a temporary proposal to keep the force and a presidential affirmation of no vacuum. Internal pressures are increasing with the fuel crisis, calls for strike and protest, the continuation of the Roumieh prison strike, and sensitive judicial and political files, while the relationship between the presidency and the premiership remains subject to tension, as shown by the Syrian delegation's visit to Beirut without the prime minister's knowledge.
Outlook
In the near term, the south appears set to remain an arena of Israeli military pressure unless a political understanding takes shape, especially with Netanyahu speaking of 'surprises' and messages to Lebanon. If the eighth round of negotiations resumes, it will likely focus on security arrangements, UNIFIL's future, and the weapons file, amid Hezbollah's opposition and continued ambiguity over the date. As for UNIFIL, the likely direction is a search for a temporary formula to prevent a vacuum, while withdrawal remains a possibility if the parties do not agree. Domestically, the prime minister will continue to push the state, reconstruction, and fiscal discipline agenda, but he will face pressures from economic protests, political division, and strained relations with the presidency, which could increase government fragility without necessarily meaning its fall.