Situation assessment

News over the past 72 hours shows continued Israeli operations and assassinations in the Gaza Strip, targeting figures in Hamas’s military wing and financing networks, while Hamas refrains from a tangible military response and limits itself to condolence messages, according to Israeli security sources and Palestinian sources close to Hamas. These sources indicate that Hamas prefers calm before the Knesset elections and has given preliminary approval to the Peace Council roadmap to transfer civilian control of Gaza to a national committee with a gradual transfer of weapons, while Israel conditions any major withdrawal on Hamas’s disarmament. In Jerusalem and the West Bank, Israeli incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque and settler incursions continue, alongside a general closure imposed on the West Bank, a raid on Birzeit University, and a Palestinian woman injured at the Qalandiya checkpoint. Internally, a militia commander in Rafah claimed responsibility for kidnapping the head of the Internal Security Apparatus and the director of Abu Youssef al-Najjar Hospital, while the Palestinian Elections Commission opened candidacy for legislative elections. Internationally, the United Nations expanded its list of companies linked to settlements, Russia’s foreign minister called for establishing a Palestinian state, a U.S. congressman demanded the release of Marwan Barghouti, and there was disagreement over the volume of aid entering Gaza.

The picture reflects a dual dynamic: on one hand, Israel continues its policy of assassinations and precise targeting of Hamas’s military and financial capabilities, including field commanders, engineers, and currency-exchange networks, while maintaining pressure on Gaza through operations and closure. On the other hand, Hamas appears, based on the available data, to be exercising tactical restraint, refraining from military response to avoid a new war and preserve what remains of its capabilities, while engaging in an incomplete negotiating track over Gaza’s administration and disarmament. The main deadlock lies in diverging conditions: Hamas preliminarily accepts a transfer of civilian control and a gradual transfer of weapons, while Israel demands disarmament first, leaving the transitional arrangement suspended. Additionally, a militia commander in Rafah claiming responsibility for kidnapping security and health officials reveals internal security fragmentation and a challenge to Hamas’s authority in Gaza. In Jerusalem and the West Bank, incursions, closure, and the university raid indicate calibrated escalation that may be linked to timing and political factors and raises the risk of friction. Internationally, U.N., Russian, and U.S. moves appear to exert pressure or offer symbolic support, but they do not immediately change the balance of power. Opening candidacy for legislative elections, with no details on dates, adds an internal variable that could rearrange Palestinian leadership if the process advances.

In light of the data, the most likely scenario remains a continuation of the current pattern: limited Israeli operations and ongoing assassinations versus Hamas restraint, with the transitional roadmap remaining suspended due to disagreement over the sequencing of disarmament and withdrawal. The situation could escalate if Israeli incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque continue or measures in the West Bank expand, or if Israel targets senior Hamas leaders in a way that pushes it to change its calculus. Continued internal security disorder in Gaza, against the backdrop of kidnappings and armed challenges, could also complicate any arrangement for civilian administration. Conversely, limited incremental progress on Gaza’s administration cannot be ruled out if external guarantees are provided and a phased formula is agreed, but the Palestinian electoral file remains open to possibilities of postponement or blockage amid a lack of clear details.