Situation assessment

In the past 72 hours, Syria has witnessed a dual picture: domestically, wide protests erupted in Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, and Raqqa, then Aleppo, Idlib, and Sweida, after fuel prices were raised by up to 40%, which senior Israeli security officials described as the largest social and economic challenge to the new regime. Externally, President Ahmed al-Sharaa said negotiations with Israel reached 90% before Israel backed off, affirming at the UN that the Golan is Syrian land and that annexation measures are invalid, and demanding withdrawal to the December 8, 2024 lines, amid ongoing Israeli incursions in southern Syria. Germany also began talks with Damascus on returning Syrian refugees according to three categories, while the US State Department affirmed that incursions do not provide security for Israel and that the solution lies in security arrangements.

The news reflects interlinkage between domestic and external tracks. The new regime, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, seeks to translate international openness after sanctions were lifted and the Caesar Act repealed into economic gains and entrenched legitimacy, but it faces a direct domestic test with fuel price protests that represent accumulated frustration due to low income, delayed payments, and high living costs. At the same time, security files with Israel remain pivotal: there is negotiation over a security arrangement, not peace, with points of disagreement over the Golan, Mount Hermon, withdrawal, disarmament, and freedom of action, while Israel demands a demilitarized southern Syria and the ability to prevent hostile forces from entering. Israeli incursions in Quneitra and rural Daraa, accompanied by arrests, home demolitions, and restrictions on farmers, put pressure on the population and reinforce Damascus's emphasis on sovereignty. US policy appears more inclined toward security arrangements as an alternative to incursions, while Germany tries to address the refugee file by classifying refugees into categories, reflecting rising European pressures. The controversy over Asala Nasri's concert in Damascus points to internal contestation over the cultural and religious character of the new regime, despite its external pragmatism.

Based on the data, limited scenarios can be envisaged: (1) continued negotiation over security arrangements between Damascus and Israel under US auspices or mediation, with possible partial understandings, but the Golan, withdrawal, and disarmament points remain obstacles that may prevent a comprehensive agreement. (2) The popular protests may expand or be contained if the government takes measures to ease living costs or addresses delayed payments, with discontent remaining a pressure factor on stability. (3) Israeli incursions in the south may continue amid growing US pressure to rely on security arrangements instead, which could limit but not immediately end them. (4) Talks on returning refugees with Germany and European countries may proceed according to categories without a final agreement, with a potential impact on Syrians abroad. (5) Cultural and religious controversy inside Syria may escalate as the new regime tries to combine external pragmatism with a conservative base.