Situation assessment

Over the past 72 hours, the Palestinian scene has reflected a split between two tracks: a political track involving steps to form a broad Palestinian coalition that includes Marwan Barghouti in preparation for elections scheduled in the West Bank and Gaza Strip on November 28, aimed at creating a framework enjoying American and regional legitimacy; and a field track marked by the continuation of Israeli assassinations of Hamas field commanders, including Izz al-Din al-Bayk, commander of the northern Gaza Strip brigade, and Imad Hassan Hussein Islim, deputy commander of the Gaza City brigade and commander of the Zaytoun battalion, alongside scattered strikes in Jabalia, Gaza City and Khan Younis. In the West Bank, attacks attributed to extremist settlers escalated during the Sukkot holiday, including the burning of property and the writing of revenge slogans, amid American, British and Saudi condemnations, and incursions into Al-Aqsa Mosque led by two Israeli ministers. On the humanitarian level, satellite imagery showed that 82% of buildings in the Gaza Strip have been damaged.

The Palestinian scene appears to be taking shape amid the intersection of three levels that do not necessarily operate in the same direction. On the political level, talk of a broad coalition including Barghouti, pushed by Mohammed Dahlan's circle, points to an attempt to rearrange the Palestinian house on an electoral basis resting on external American and regional legitimacy, suggesting that the elections file has become linked to international calculations more than being the product of a purely internal dynamic. Meanwhile, the security level continues on an escalatory pace, as Israel targets field leaderships in Gaza and the West Bank, while Hebrew estimates indicate that about 60 Hamas commanders have been targeted; nevertheless, assessments of the movement's remaining strength (25,000–30,000 fighters), with continued tunnel rehabilitation and weapons manufacturing, make it difficult to speak of its dismantling. This contradiction partly explains Hamas's raising of its alert level, and indicates that assassinations are being used as an instrument of negotiating pressure rather than a means of decisive resolution. On the diplomatic level, condemnations by Washington, London and Riyadh of settlement violence and incursions intersect with limited practical steps (Britain's ban on importing settlement goods, and a path for resettling Palestinians in Britain), reflecting a gap between rhetoric and action. On the humanitarian level, figures of widespread destruction confirm that the ground for any upcoming political arrangement will be extremely fragile.

Based on the available data, the political and security tracks are expected to continue in parallel without a clear resolution. On the one hand, steps to form the electoral coalition may advance if American and regional support continues, but the fate of the elections remains tied to non-Palestinian factors and to field developments. On the other hand, Israeli assassinations and strikes in Gaza and the West Bank are likely to continue, with the possibility of limited responses by Hamas based on its assessments of its escalation capacity and the timing it chooses. Settlement escalation in the West Bank is also likely to continue during religious occasions, against a backdrop of continued international condemnations and limited symbolic measures. On the humanitarian level, destruction figures and relief needs are likely to remain on the rise, complicating any future political arrangement.