Israeli Assassinations and US Sanctions: Gaza Ceasefire Under an Escalating Test
Bottom line
The key takeaway is that the Gaza ceasefire is undergoing an escalating test: Israel continues to assassinate Palestinian leaders and frames it as a security necessity, Washington applies financial and judicial pressure on Hamas, while Hamas declares its commitment to calm and denies rebuilding its military capabilities. The current balance is fragile, and the most likely prospect is the continuation of this pattern of limited strikes without immediate collapse, but any Palestinian response or expansion of West Bank operations could quickly change the equation.
Current situation
Over the past 72 hours, the Israeli army announced a series of airstrikes in the Gaza Strip targeting commanders and operatives in the military wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, in Gaza City, Jabalia, and Khan Younis, including a Hamas group commander and commanders in the rocket and armored units. Strikes on vehicles and residential areas also killed several people, including a policeman in Khan Younis. In response, Hamas denied Israeli reports about rebuilding its military capabilities and maintaining tunnels, and accused Israel of systematic ceasefire violations, calling on the "Peace Council" to adhere to the roadmap. In parallel, Washington imposed sanctions on a Hamas-linked financial network, the Justice Department announced an indictment, and French authorities made arrests. In the West Bank, attacks escalated during the olive harvest, along with raids and arrests, amid Israeli monitoring of increased drone-use attempts and smuggling funded by Hamas abroad. A US judge also authorized the deportation of Palestinian Salah Sarsour.
Analysis
The news reflects a recurring pattern: Israel continues precision assassinations in Gaza despite the ceasefire, framing them as preemptive against "systematic violations" and imminent threats, specifically targeting commanders linked to the October 7 attack and hostage-taking or to rocket systems. This indicates that Israel retains operational and intelligence freedom inside the Strip, and may seek to preempt any reconstruction of Hamas and Islamic Jihad capabilities before it takes root. In turn, Hamas denies the accusations and hints at Israeli breaches of the truce, reflecting a narrative battle over responsibility for escalation and placing it before a dilemma between publicly adhering to calm and field pressure not to let the assassinations of its leaders pass unanswered. The US sanctions on Hamas's financing network, using cryptocurrencies and charitable fronts, reveal an integrated Western approach to choking the movement's resources, alongside judicial prosecutions in Europe. In the West Bank, escalation during the olive harvest links settler and Israeli force pressure with Israeli security concerns over the spread of drones and their smuggling with external funding, meaning the West Bank file is not separate from Gaza calculations. The deportation case of Salah Sarsour also shows the legal and political repercussions of the Palestinian issue extending into the US arena.
Outlook
Given the data, the most likely scenario appears to be a continuation of the current situation: limited and repeated Israeli assassinations, Palestinian denial and mutual accusations of violations, continued US and European financial pressure on Hamas, and escalation in the West Bank during the olive harvest. However, the continuation of these strikes raises two possibilities: first, Hamas and Islamic Jihad choose restraint under political and humanitarian pressure to preserve the ceasefire; second, they respond in a limited manner, which could open a broader escalation cycle if the assassinations are considered a serious crossing of red lines. Continued talk of tunnels, rockets, and drones may also push Israel toward broader operations, while sanctions and legal prosecutions remain a parallel pressure tool. Any development in the West Bank or the drone file could add another front of tension.