Situation assessment

News from the past 72 hours shows Israel operating on four interlocking tracks: a military-security track in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank; an internal security track linked to the Flydubai incident, espionage cases, and investigations; a political-electoral track ahead of the Knesset elections on 27 October; and a tense regional track involving Iran, Turkey, the United States, and China. In Gaza, the Israeli army and Shin Bet announced an attempt to assassinate Ali al-Amodi, deputy head of Hamas's political bureau in Gaza, described in reports as having been Yahya Sinwar's right-hand man and a participant in 7 October decisions. The army also revealed a 'zero wait' strategy to exhaust Hamas, with more than 500 strikes in a month on Lebanon and Gaza, including more than 140 targets in Gaza. Conversely, Haaretz called for talking to Hamas instead of trying to destroy it, warning that returning to war means destroying Gaza entirely. On security, Flydubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv witnessed an attempt by an Omani co-pilot to assault the captain and down the plane, before Israeli passengers subdued him and the plane made an emergency landing in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. Haaretz revealed that Israel had received the crew list in advance, with ambiguity over whether it underwent security screening, amid debate over the responsibility of Shin Bet, Mossad, and the Transport Ministry. Flydubai announced suspending flights to Israel, while Ben Gvir demands the pilot's extradition. Domestically, investigations are underway regarding pilots from Iran, Syria, and Iraq arriving at Ben Gurion Airport, and an indictment was filed against Israeli Mohammed Khalaf from Baqa al-Gharbiyya for spying for an Iranian operator via Telegram, cryptocurrency, and AI tools. Politically, the Supreme Court cancelled the disqualification of the Joint List, the United List, and Ofer Cassif, allowing them to run. Disputes in Likud escalated after Netanyahu was criticized for attacking Ofer Winter, while Gadi Eisenkot presents himself as an alternative, refusing rotation with Netanyahu, Bennett, or Lieberman, and Haim Ramon says Netanyahu's chances are near zero and raises a scenario of a minority government led by Eisenkot with Arab support. Debate over 7 October failures continues with the naming of Lt. Col. Arieh Omdror and former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar's warning three weeks before a multi-front war. Regionally, Netanyahu said the Iranian regime will fall and Trump's pressure is weakening the IRGC, while Trump spoke about Israeli elections, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Iranian proposals and not ruling out a military option. Tension with Turkey escalated after the Fidan-Eisenberg clash, and Netanyahu ordered preparation of a legal case against Erdogan. Le Monde warned of growing Israeli isolation, the Times reported possible suspension of intelligence cooperation with Britain, and Maariv expressed Israeli concern over the Trump-Xi Jinping summit and China's position on Iran.

The picture shows Israel managing a war of attrition in Gaza under a 'zero wait' doctrine aimed at preventing Hamas from rebuilding its capabilities and leadership, while attempting to eliminate its political and military figures. However, this approach weakens prospects for a political settlement and increases the humanitarian and diplomatic cost, especially as internal voices such as Haaretz call for negotiations with Hamas. The Flydubai incident reveals a gap in aviation security: Israel received crew data in advance, but security screening of foreign companies appears to have remained a point of contention among Shin Bet, Mossad, and the Transport Ministry, which may push toward tightening procedures and redefining responsibilities. The incident also affects Israel's relations with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, and may be used by political actors such as Ben Gvir to toughen the security and punitive stance. Electorally, the Supreme Court's decision to reinstate the Arab lists and Ofer Cassif complicates right-wing calculations, at a time when Likud suffers division over attacking Ofer Winter. The emergence of Eisenkot as a possible alternative, with a scenario of a minority government backed by Arab support, indicates that the elections may not easily resolve in Netanyahu's favour. The 7 October file still affects political legitimacy: revealing the intelligence officer's identity and Ronen Bar's warnings reinforce the narrative of an intelligence and political failure and fuel demands for an inquiry. Regionally, Israel seeks to benefit from US pressure on Iran, but faces challenges from China's unwillingness to exert real pressure on Tehran, from escalating friction with Turkey, and from signs of diplomatic isolation in Europe. At the same time, internal threats linked to spying for Iran indicate that the security confrontation is not limited to external fronts.

In the coming period, the most likely scenario appears to be continued Israeli military operations in Gaza at varying levels, with the possibility of repeated attempts to target Hamas leaders, without a near indication of a political settlement. If Israel moves toward a wider war, international pressure and isolation are likely to rise, especially with the approaching 7 October anniversary and the 27 October elections. On aviation security, tighter screening of foreign airline crews and companies is expected, and perhaps a redistribution of roles among Shin Bet, Mossad, and the Transport Ministry, while the investigation in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman continues. Electorally, the Supreme Court decision may increase Arab list representation, while the possibility of a government led by Eisenkot with Arab support or abstention remains on the table according to current data, alongside the possibility of continued political deadlock. Regionally, tension with Iran is likely to continue on the path of sanctions and US military threats, with a Chinese role preventing decisive pressure. On the Turkish front, legal, diplomatic, and strategic escalation in Syria and Bab el-Mandeb may continue. Internal security investigations into Iran-linked spy cells may also continue.