Situation assessment

Over the past 72 hours, Lebanon has witnessed continued Israeli military escalation in the south, including airstrikes and artillery shelling targeting the towns of Kfar Tebnit, Mansouri, Zibqin and the Mari plain, along with gunfire at a UNIFIL position near Kfarshouba whose responsibility was not attributed. At the same time, political debate continues over Hezbollah's weapons and the state's role in the south, amid American calls to break free from the party, a British proposal to withdraw weapons, and discussion of possibly declaring a state of emergency or exceptional measures. In parallel, Lebanon is preparing for a military round of negotiations with Israel in Tampa/Florida between 20 and 22 October with a military delegation headed by Brigadier General George Rizkallah, while 86 MPs have renewed their appeal to the Security Council to keep UNIFIL. Economically, the World Bank painted a grim picture with a projected contraction of 6.4%, inflation around 17.5% and unemployment exceeding 30%, with UN reports indicating that 55% of families cannot secure three meals, alongside controversy over political and financial files domestically.

The news reflects three interlocking tracks. The first is security: continued Israeli air and artillery operations in the border sector indicate that the ceasefire is fragile and penetrable, and that Israel retains freedom of movement south of the Litani. The shooting incident at the UNIFIL position near Kfarshouba, with no party identified, deepens ambiguity and leaves room for multiple interpretations, with UNIFIL warning that it may amount to a war crime, which increases international pressure on all parties. The second is political-diplomatic: the timing of preparations for the Tampa military round alongside the 86 MPs' appeal to keep UNIFIL, and the discussion of gradually replacing it with a support mechanism placing the army at the center of control south of the Litani, reveals a track of re-engineering security arrangements. Notably, the Lebanese negotiating team is limited to the military side, and Washington has not officially informed Lebanon of the date, suggesting the round's rules of engagement remain in limbo. Domestically, indications point to reactivating the state's presence in the south through the Prime Minister's move toward Nabatieh, driven by Speaker Nabih Berri, and Hezbollah's position accepting the strengthening of the state's role while tying it to ending the occupation, representing a calibrated attempt to contain the crisis internally. The third is economic-social: deteriorating indicators (contraction, inflation, unemployment, poverty) intersect with protest movements and controversies such as prisons, nationality and electricity, making social stability a parallel pressure factor to security. In the regional background, Iranian-American escalation and the anniversary of October 7 suggest that Lebanon is reacting to dynamics larger than its capacity to control.

In the coming period, Israeli operations in the south are likely to remain at an intermittent pace targeting border towns, with the possibility of recurring incidents threatening the safety of UNIFIL or the Lebanese army that could prompt urgent diplomatic moves. As for the Tampa round, the absence of an official date and the likelihood that only the military delegation will participate weakens the prospect of substantive results and keeps the path of extending UNIFIL or restructuring its role open to prolonged international discussion. Domestically, the debate over a state of emergency or military zones could translate into limited measures if the front escalates, while political maneuvering between the government, Hezbollah and its allies over the state's role in the south and the electoral law is expected to continue. Economically, in the absence of tangible reforms with the IMF, inflation and poverty are likely to worsen, with risks of further social unrest and sectoral protests.