Three Years After October 7: Continued Lack of a Decisive Outcome in Gaza and Expanding Escalation in the West Bank
Bottom line
Three years after October 7, Gaza remains a front without a decisive outcome, combining broad Israeli military control with the absence of a political solution and Hamas's continued capacity to govern and persist ideologically, amid a fragile ceasefire. At the same time, the expansion of operations in the West Bank and the widening international criticism of Israel indicate that the conflict has been decided neither militarily nor politically, and that managing the crisis is taking precedence over resolving it.
Current situation
The news issued over the past 72 hours, as three years have passed since the October 7 attack, reflects the admission by the Israeli security establishment that the Gaza front remains far from decisive despite its control over roughly 64% of the Strip's area, that Hamas still governs areas outside Israeli control and benefits financially from aid, with assassinations continuing, the absence of a political plan for Gaza's future, and mounting pressure on reserve forces. In the Gaza Strip, targeted airstrikes against individuals continued, including Muhammad Shalouf and Hisham Abu Jalala in Mawasi, Khan Younis, and two Hamas operatives who exited Kamal Adwan Hospital. In the West Bank, a wide-ranging campaign of incursions was carried out covering Birzeit University, towns, villages and agricultural lands, with demolitions, arrests, confiscations and the removal of monuments, and a citizen was killed in Hebron amid circulating images of soldiers taking a photo next to his body. At the international level, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani escalated on the third anniversary with accusations that Israel is committing "genocide" and that the US administration is complicit through continued arms shipments.
Analysis
Taken together, the news highlights a gap between declared Israeli military achievement on the ground and the absence of any political horizon: control over large areas of Gaza has not translated into ending Hamas's rule or dismantling its capabilities; the movement still administers areas outside Israeli control and benefits financially from aid. Researcher Khaled Abu Toameh's warning about continuing chants of "October 7 will return" indicates that the ideological and symbolic dimension of the conflict has not been affected by military pressure, reinforcing the reading that military decisiveness alone is insufficient. The targeting of two Hamas operatives who exited Kamal Adwan Hospital reflects the fragility of the ceasefire agreement and the exchange of accusations regarding its violation, while the animation of destruction shows that military activity and destruction are concentrated, after the October 2025 agreement, east of the "Yellow Line" in areas under Israeli control. In the West Bank, the pace of wide-ranging operations, the raiding of universities, the expulsion of farmers and house demolitions point to an escalating pressure policy, which could be interpreted as management of the internal front or as pre-emption of an escalation, while Mamdani's positions reflect a shift in international discourse, particularly in the United States.
Outlook
Based solely on the available data, the following scenarios appear likely: first, the continuation of the state of non-decisiveness in Gaza with repeated precise targeting operations against individuals and groups, and the continued absence of any political plan for the future. Second, the possible erosion of the ceasefire agreement due to mutual accusations of violations, with risks of limited or broader escalation. Third, the continuation of the pace of incursions and operations in the West Bank, amid mounting pressure on Israeli reserve forces and continued alert. The news contains no indications of an imminent political arrangement or permanent cessation of fighting, nor sufficient data to assess any change in the balance of power.