Israel on the Third Anniversary of the October 7 Attack: Multi-Front Security Alert and Division over Accountability
Bottom line
The key point the reader should know is that Israel is entering its fourth year after October 7 caught between deferred domestic accountability and a multi-front security alert. The third anniversary did not unify the ranks but deepened division over responsibility for the failure, while the army continues its operations and prepares for possible confrontations with Hamas, Iran, and its militias. The upcoming October 27 elections may constitute a dual security and political test, intersecting with warnings of a possible attack and growing demands for an investigation.
Current situation
The third anniversary of the October 7, 2023 attack comes amid sharp political division in Israel. Memorial ceremonies were held in more than 400 locations, with a national moment of silence, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was absent from all ceremonies and most Likud ministers also stayed away. Likud attacked the media and security chiefs, claiming Netanyahu received no prior warning, while Gadi Eisenkot accused him of falsifying the truth and demanded a criminal investigation, Yair Lapid criticized the ignoring of intelligence warnings, and President Isaac Herzog called for an investigation without explicitly demanding an official state commission. On security, the army and Shin Bet announced an assassination attempt against Ali al-Amoudi, deputy head of Hamas's political bureau in Gaza, and the killing of Ibrahim Mustafa Suleiman Abu Oweimer, commander of Hamas's elite faction in Nuseirat, while the army said it struck about 100,000 targets over three years, including 65,000 in Gaza, 28,000 in Lebanon and Syria, and 4,500 in Iran. Shin Bet warned the cabinet that Hamas is planning a central attack or kidnapping near the elections, and noted links with the Houthis and a multi-front scenario. Regionally, preparations continue for a possible strike on Iran, alongside talk of a U.S. green light for operations in Iraqi airspace and U.S. reinforcements, Arab condemnation of incursions in southern Syria, and tension with Egypt. Domestically, investigations continue into the attempted downing of a flydubai flight and a possible Iran link, a shooting at an official car in Ashkelon, and an indictment against a university professor who planned to kill hundreds, in addition to a constitutional crisis over the state comptroller election.
Analysis
The third anniversary reflects a growing domestic trust crisis between the political leadership, the security establishment, and the opposition. Netanyahu's absence from the ceremonies and his refusal to address a state commission of inquiry indicate that the accountability file is being managed according to electoral calculations, while Herzog and the opposition insist that the October 7 failure must be investigated. At the same time, the army and Shin Bet continue assassinations and strikes in Gaza despite talk of a ceasefire, reflecting a gap between the language of calm and operational continuity and increasing the likelihood of Palestinian responses. The new security doctrine based on security zones in Lebanon and Syria and control over about 64 percent of Gaza indicates a shift from deterrence to physical control, but Yossi Yehoshua's report considers the real test to be facing the next surprise, which is reinforced by Shin Bet's warning of an attack near the elections. Regionally, Israel places Iran at the center of its preparations, with close coordination with Washington but also signals that the strike decision may not wait for Washington. Incursions in Syria, pressure in Iraq, and tension with Egypt and the Arab League broaden the risk circle, while internal security investigations, such as the flydubai file and the Ashkelon incident, complicate the picture of domestic stability. The economy shows relative recovery, but the cost of war remains high and presses on security and accountability priorities.
Outlook
In the short term, scenarios range from continued limited Israeli operations and assassinations in Gaza, the West Bank, and southern Syria, with risks of responses from Hamas, Hezbollah, or actors in Syria. The scenario of a strike on Iran or on Iran-backed militias in Iraq remains possible, either in coordination with Washington or independently, but it is tied to developments in preparations and U.S. reinforcements. Shin Bet's warnings of a central attack or kidnapping near the October 27 elections also raise the possibility of intense security alert that could affect the election campaign. Domestically, debate over a formal state commission of inquiry or criminal investigation is likely to continue, along with the state comptroller crisis and other judicial proceedings. Regionally, tensions with Egypt and the Arab League could escalate if incursions in Syria continue or statements touching Sinai persist, while the British consulate file in East Jerusalem remains a point of diplomatic friction.