Situation assessment

Over the past 72 hours, Israel has been in a tense pre-election atmosphere ahead of the October 27 elections, where public debate over the failures of the October 7, 2023 attack intersects with continuing security challenges on several fronts. Media reports and Israeli investigations address details of the intelligence and military failure, including that only 4 battalions and about 800 soldiers were on the Gaza border on the morning of the attack, that the head of the Southern District in the Shin Bet described what was happening as a 'trick,' and that Netanyahu was aware of the information according to testimony from his former military secretary Avi Gil. Reports also speak of Hamas's strategic deception and the recruitment of double agents, and of a 'trap of consciousness' built by Yahya Sinwar. The Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation quoted a security source as saying that the probability of an attack on Iran before the elections is low, while other reports spoke of factors that could push Israel toward a unilateral strike on Iran. On the security level, Israeli assassinations in Gaza continue at a rate of four per day according to a military source, with fears of attempts to kidnap soldiers on the Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and West Bank fronts. Domestically, Haredi protests against conscription are escalating and embarrassing Netanyahu, and the legal adviser to the government has instructed the Prison Service commander to prevent Ben Gvir from filming election videos inside prisons. Regionally, the US Embassy warned its citizens, and a first Israeli participation in an airshow in Morocco emerged, amid talk of Israel's declining regional initiative and the threat of the Iran war to oil supplies.

The news reveals four intertwined dynamics. First, the October 7 file has returned forcefully before the elections, through investigations and testimonies speaking of a cognitive and warning failure, not merely a lack of information, and of Hamas's strategic deception and double agents, placing Netanyahu and the security establishment before questions of responsibility. Second, the election campaign has turned into polarization over security and military service; Netanyahu is reviving the slogan 'Either the right or Palestine,' while Haredi protests embarrass his government, and the legal adviser prevents Ben Gvir from exploiting prisons electorally. Third, the security fronts remain open: daily assassinations in Gaza, fears of kidnapping soldiers in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and the West Bank, assessments that Hamas is rebuilding its capabilities, and talk of Shin Bet warnings about groups in the Negev. Fourth, the Iran file represents the largest variable; reports speak of a possible unilateral strike for electoral and military reasons, while others say its probability before the elections is low, amid warnings of an Iranian surprise and of the war's impact on oil and markets. These dynamics intersect with American and European pressures: the US Embassy warning, criticism of Netanyahu's relationship with Washington, accusations of withholding reports from Ambassador Huckabee, and a letter by retired US commanders defending Israel, in addition to diplomatic steps such as reducing the British mission and Israeli participation in Morocco.

Based on available data, three possible tracks can be identified for the coming period. First: the election campaign continues amid the escalation of the October 7 investigation file and Haredi protests, without a clear political resolution before October 27. Second: security fronts remain inflamed to varying degrees, with continued assassinations in Gaza and fears of kidnapping attempts or attacks on multiple fronts, especially if Hamas or other factions decide to resume fighting. Third: Iranian scenarios diverge; an Israeli security source rules out a strike before the elections, while other analyses point to factors that could push toward a unilateral strike, with warnings of an Iranian surprise and repercussions for oil and airspace. The track of relations with Washington and London also remains open to developments linked to the election outcome and the continuation of the war in Gaza.