Situation Assessment: Palestine Between Continued Military Operations and the Disarmament and Reconstruction Track
Bottom line
The most important point to know is that Gaza is experiencing a clear duality: ongoing Israeli military operations that kill people and target what it calls Hamas capabilities, and an emerging international track for disarmament and reconstruction led by Washington that faces a gap with Israeli security orientations. The core problem is not merely the existence of a plan, but the absence of effective coordination between the Israeli military logic and the American next-day logic, and the continuation of Palestinian internal stagnation with the postponement of elections. Therefore, any progress in disarmament or reconstruction remains fragile and contingent on the behavior of the parties on the ground and the extent to which political arrangements can be implemented.
Current situation
Over the past 72 hours, Israeli military operations continued in the Gaza Strip, with several Palestinians killed in airstrikes on Khan Younis, the Tuffah neighborhood east of Gaza City, and Mawasi Khan Younis, including Mu'min al-Ay and Hisham Abu Jalala. The Israeli army and Shin Bet announced strikes on what they described as Hamas military infrastructure, including a control room, a rocket launch site, and weapons depots. In parallel, Hebrew reports said Americans and representatives of the Peace Council are preparing a field tour in Gaza to determine locations for the handover of Hamas weapons under President Trump's 20-point plan, while the Israeli security establishment expressed surprise at U.S. conduct regarding next-day reconstruction and its desire to accelerate operations. Washington said Gaza reconstruction will take years and that there is real progress toward disarmament. Politically, Khalil al-Hayya met Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and reports said Hamas is helping Qatar and Turkey mediate between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. Qatari aid to Gaza continued, the postponement of Palestinian elections was raised, and international reactions appeared, including protests in Paris and Trump's remarks at a campaign rally in Ohio, alongside Israeli documents on Sinwar's planning of the October 7 attack and Qassam Brigades revealing the identity of Muhammad Abu Jasser and confirming his death.
Analysis
The news reflects two parallel and partially conflicting tracks: an Israeli military track that continues pressure and targets what it describes as Hamas capabilities, and an international political track led by Washington that seeks to convert the battlefield situation into a disarmament and reconstruction arrangement. The potential field tour to determine weapons handover sites indicates that Trump's plan is beginning to acquire an operational dimension, but the declared gap between U.S. conduct and the orientations of the Israeli security establishment means Israel may prefer continued military operations over entrenching a permanent ceasefire. On the other hand, Hamas is moving diplomatically through Turkey and Qatar and appearing in regional mediation, while maintaining a resistance discourse and military memory by revealing the identity of perpetrators of past operations and displaying symbols inside tunnels. The postponement of Palestinian elections indicates continued internal stagnation and the inability of Fatah or the Authority to renew legitimacy, which may complicate any political arrangement for the day after. Regionally, Qatari and Turkish roles intersect with the Yemen and Saudi files, giving Hamas diplomatic room but not changing the military realities in Gaza. As for the Israeli documents on Sinwar's planning of the October 7 attack, they reinforce the Israeli narrative and may influence the negotiation context and international narrative, but they do not appear to be a direct factor in changing the course of events in the short term.
Outlook
In the short term, the most likely scenario remains continued limited Israeli strikes with repeated announcements of targeting infrastructure, especially if the disarmament track does not advance. The U.S. field tour to determine handover sites may proceed, and if realized, it could open a practical test of Hamas's readiness to hand over its weapons, but Israel's desire to accelerate operations may obstruct this track. Reconstruction is likely to remain a long-term prospect unless accompanied by security and political arrangements, with continued humanitarian need and Qatari aid. Hamas is likely to continue its diplomatic moves through Turkey and Qatar and regional mediation, and to continue producing commemorative media material. By contrast, Palestinian elections do not appear imminent in light of the postponement and internal division. If understandings stall or strikes continue, the risk of renewed escalation remains; if arrangements advance, partial calm and limited relief or reconstruction steps may emerge.