Situation assessment

Over the past 72 hours, developments in Syria have focused on the southern front, where Israeli forces renewed their incursion into the Quneitra and Daraa countrysides. A patrol of more than 6 vehicles loaded with soldiers entered the area south of al-Rafid town, and a force of 4 military vehicles penetrated Wadi al-Raqad in the western Daraa countryside and opened fire toward agricultural lands. Israeli forces also abducted a young man in the Quneitra countryside and detained three shepherds from a farm in the same countryside, amid a statement by UN Deputy Special Envoy to Syria Claudio Cordone pointing to continued Israeli shelling, incursion, and detention in southern Syria. At the same time, reports address President Ahmad al-Sharaa's efforts to rebuild the Syrian army, with about $4.3 billion allocated to defense and security in the 2026 budget (41% of the total budget of $10.5 billion), raising Israeli concerns about a new military threat amid growing Turkish influence in training and equipping. An analysis also notes that southern Syria, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024, has become a sensitive tension point, where the US side seeks security arrangements based on a 'balance of stability,' amid Israeli-Turkish competition for influence. The file of converting Mezzeh military airport into a civilian one has also emerged, amid reports of participation by SyriaJet, affiliated with the UAE's Jetex group active in Israel, and its linkage to a Syrian-Israeli negotiations track mediated by the United States, while Syrian laws banning dealings with Israel remain in place.

The news reflects a dual dynamic in Syria: Israeli field escalation in the south, and Syrian efforts to rebuild a military institution and engage in US-led security and political arrangements. The Israeli incursions and detentions in Quneitra and Daraa are not isolated events; they come amid continued violation of the 1974 disengagement agreement and indicate an Israeli attempt to impose a security reality in the south and perhaps strengthen its positions near the Golan and its demands for wide areas. On the other hand, Damascus currently lacks conventional deterrence, so it resorts to demanding international action and guarantees of full withdrawal, while relying on US support for arrangements that limit escalation. Army rebuilding falls within priorities of consolidating state control and ensuring officer loyalty, but it faces financial and political constraints and fuels Israeli concerns that may translate into preemptive strikes, as happened at Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria. Turkish influence in training and equipping adds a complicating factor, amid Israeli-Turkish competition over influence in Syria. The Mezzeh airport and potential investment file appears an initial test of the possibility of undeclared economic normalization, but it remains limited and legally and politically fragile.

Based on available data, limited Israeli violations and incursions in southern Syria are likely to continue, with possible repetition of detentions and aerial targeting if army rebuilding efforts or Turkish influence are perceived as a growing threat. As for de-escalation, it depends on the success of US mediation in shaping security arrangements acceptable to Israel and Damascus, which faces obstacles due to Israeli demands for wide areas and competition with Turkey. Economically, a rapid transition to official normalization is not expected, but limited steps such as converting Mezzeh airport into a civilian one or indirect investments could advance if negotiations mature. If arrangements fail, southern Syria remains exposed to repeated escalation cycles without a full-scale war, given Syria's lack of capacity to confront and international pressure to contain escalation.