Sunday, 18 Oct 2026 18 Shawwal 2026 AH Beirut

Situation assessment

What recent events mean, and where things are likely headed.

Earlier assessments

2026-09-20 Situation Assessment: Iran Between U.S. Escalation Rhetoric and a Conditional Negotiation Track The most important point for the reader is that Tehran faces a dual situation combining simultaneous U.S. escalatory and diplomatic pressure…