Cost of living squeezes households as central bank opens a deposit-recovery account
Fuel prices fell slightly in the latest pricing round, with the 95-octane gasoline canister at 2,825,000 lira versus 2,837,000 lira, and diesel at 2,692,000 lira versus 2,726,000 lira, while the gas cylinder rose to 1,383,000 lira from 1,333,000 lira. At the same time, reports point to weakening consumption under the pressure of high prices, with warnings of a recession approaching 10 percent and inflation between 15 and 17 percent. The central bank announced the opening of a "deposit recovery account" reserved exclusively for recovered funds, as debate continues over the grey list and Lebanon's gold. On the living front, public administration employees continue their strike and Lebanese University professors demand the approval of their tenure file, while the Prime Minister pointed to an expected 6.4 percent contraction this year.
Prices and living costs: slightly cheaper fuel, more expensive gas
The latest pricing round showed a slight decline in fuel prices: the 95-octane gasoline canister reached 2,825,000 lira versus 2,837,000 lira, 98-octane 2,843,000 lira versus 2,854,000 lira, and diesel 2,692,000 lira versus 2,726,000 lira. On the other hand, the household gas cylinder (10 kg) rose to 1,383,000 lira from 1,333,000 lira. A report points to falling consumption and eroding purchasing power, with warnings of a recession approaching 10 percent and inflation ranging between 15 and 17 percent. On health, hospitals are demanding a 25 percent increase in the 2026 hospitalization bill after a 6 percent rise in 2025, which insurers say will be passed on to citizens' premiums.
The lira, banks and deposits: a new account for recovered funds
The central bank announced the opening of a special, independent account named the "deposit recovery account," into which funds recovered for the bank through court rulings, settlements or other procedures in Lebanon and abroad are transferred exclusively, stressing that it is earmarked solely for repaying deposits and is financially and accounting-wise separate. As part of efforts to remove Lebanon from the grey list, a two-day joint workshop between the Public Prosecution and the Internal Security Forces began in Beirut on parallel financial investigations, money laundering, and tracing, freezing and confiscating assets. In an opinion article, the writer noted that the central bank's gold reserves stand at about 286 tonnes, that the state owns the bank but is its largest debtor at about 60 billion dollars according to Governor Karim Souaid's estimate, while the bank's debts to commercial banks — and therefore to depositors — amount to about 78 billion dollars. Globally, the gold ounce stood at 4,202 dollars versus 4,183 dollars, and a gram of 21-karat gold at 118.22 dollars versus 117.69 dollars.
Wages and salaries: public employees strike and the tenure file
Official departments in Tripoli closed in response to a strike call by the Association of Public Administration Employees, while contract professors at the Lebanese University staged a sit-in on the road to the presidential palace in Baabda to demand approval of their tenure file after years of waiting, warning of further moves and strikes. In an address to the Lebanese, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam noted that the economy grew by 4.2 percent last year but that the war halted that path, with a projected 6.4 percent contraction this year, stressing that a large part of the spending increase in the 2027 budget is allocated to correcting salaries. The Education Ministry stressed that the regular running of the school year in public schools and secondary schools is a priority, and that contracting measures do not target teachers and are not intended to shrink the teaching staff.
Services: electricity at the centre of debate, health waiting
The electricity file dominates discussion, with Industry Minister Joe Issa El Khoury linking Energy and Water Minister Joe Saddi's suspension of duties to a funding shortfall and poor distribution of state revenues, and revealing that Lebanon has spent about 29 billion dollars on electricity without securing round-the-clock supply. MP Qassem Hashem blamed the persistence of the crisis on what he described as "bickering" and a "tutelage authority," urging the government to take appropriate decisions, while the board of Electricité du Liban said it has sought since taking office to improve supply, and reports spoke of accumulated debts in the sector with a stated commitment not to keep financing electricity through borrowing. On water, the National Litani River Authority announced cleaning of the canals of the southern Ras al-Ain irrigation channel and removal of sediment to ensure water flow. A video report also tracked the difficult movement of residents of southern border villages, while the hospital cost increase file remains pending.
Public finances and the state: fighting tax evasion and external talks
The Economic Committees announced their full support for the measures of Finance Minister Yassine Jaber against companies refusing to pay their tax obligations, calling for broadening the tax compliance base, pursuing evaders, and confronting smuggling and illegal activities, without placing additional tax burdens on compliant institutions and citizens. An article covered US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's meeting with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Finance Minister Yassine Jaber in Washington on 28 September, where the Lebanese statement focused on financial reforms and a request for support in IMF negotiations. LBCI reported that Lebanon is formally approaching the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), while the Prime Minister is following up a project to extend the Iraqi oil pipeline from Banias to Tripoli.
What to expect: warnings of contraction and recession, and foreign aid
The head of the Economic Committees, Mohammad Choucair, warned that Lebanon is heading toward a "major collapse" of its economy, while "Al-Qawmi" said attention must be paid to the risk of a "social explosion," amid reports of a recession approaching 10 percent and inflation between 15 and 17 percent. An Anadolu Agency report said that three years after the war that began on 8 October 2023, Lebanon has suffered heavy human and economic losses, with 8,953 dead and 30,649 injured and 97,000 housing units fully destroyed, with GDP falling to 28 billion dollars and inflation rising to 17 percent in 2026, and tourism revenue expected to drop below 4 billion dollars. On the other hand, the European Union announced an additional 10 million euros to support humanitarian response in Lebanon.
What to watch
- The Lebanese University tenure file and the public administration strike: will it be approved or postponed again?
- The outcome of the FATF assessment and whether Lebanon remains on the grey list
- The course of the electricity file after the energy minister's suspension of duties and pressure to secure funding
- IMF negotiations and external financing amid expectations of a 6.4 percent contraction and inflation between 15 and 17 percent