Gold rises, gas gets pricier... and Lebanon awaits the IMF mission
Petrol and diesel prices fell slightly in the latest pricing round, while the gas cylinder and gold prices rose. On the financial front, the financial gap law returned to the forefront of negotiations with the IMF amid talk of around $80 billion in deposits and estimated losses of about $70 billion, with an IMF official announcing a mission to Lebanon in November. Living pressure persists: public-sector employees continue their protests, and the central bank is studying raising monthly deposit withdrawals amid objections from depositors' groups. Sector-wise, electricity, public transport in Akkar and the reopening of Qlayaat airport are moving ahead with announced dates.
Prices and living costs
A canister of 95-octane petrol fell to 2,795,000 pounds from 2,802,000 pounds, 98-octane to 2,813,000 pounds from 2,820,000 pounds, and diesel to 2,589,000 pounds from 2,614,000 pounds. By contrast, the price of a 10-kg gas cylinder rose to 1,418,000 pounds from 1,383,000 pounds, raising cooking and heating costs for households. Gold rose to $116.46 per gram of 21-karat from $115.40, and the ounce to $4,140 from $4,102, boosting the value of savings held in gold. The euro stood at 100,064 pounds against 100,177 previously.
The pound, banks and deposits
The financial gap law returned to the forefront of negotiations between Lebanon and the IMF, with discussion confined to three issues: distributing banking-sector losses, mechanisms for returning and rescheduling deposits, and the size of the state's contribution to restructuring. Economy Minister Amer Bisat confirmed a general understanding between the government, the Fund and the central bank, estimating total deposits at about $80 billion, while economic estimates cited in the report point to losses of nearly $70 billion. Meanwhile, the central bank is studying raising monthly payments to depositors covered by Circulars 158 and 166 by $200 for the first, bringing it to $1,200, and $100 for the second, bringing it to $600, to be paid via bank cards rather than cash and later deducted from the $100,000 earmarked for cash returns — a move that drew objections from the Depositors' Scream association.
Salaries, wages and work
The head of the Public Administration Employees Association, Raed Hamadeh, said the living conditions of public-sector workers have reached an extremely difficult stage, with the continued erosion of salary values and rising living costs. He stressed that the association will go ahead with closing every Friday until a fair and unified salary scale is approved, demanding a clear government plan with a timetable instead of temporary aid and fixes. On the jobs front, MP Sajih Attieh announced that public transport in Akkar will start on October 24, and the first commercial flight from Qlayaat airport on November 15.
Services (electricity, water, telecoms, transport, health)
A United Nations team report in Lebanon said families in southern Lebanon have begun returning to their homes, but daily life remains extremely difficult due to power and water outages and damage to homes, infrastructure, schools and health facilities. On electricity, Beirut hosted working meetings between a team from Qatar and a team from the Energy Ministry under Minister Joe Saddi, while MP Neemat Frem said switching from fuel oil to gas could save about $3 billion a year. On social protection, the national committee followed up on the implementing steps of Law 319, with the Civil Service Council to announce the opening of applications starting October 19.
Public finances, the state and reforms
An IMF official said the Fund will send a mission to Lebanon in November, as reported by LBCI. Finance Minister Yassine Jaber told Asharq Bloomberg during the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok that he does not expect the Constitutional Council to recommend amendments to the bank restructuring law, stressing the government has made progress in the negotiations despite opposition from the banks' "lobby". Jaber had met IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who expressed satisfaction with the seriousness she sensed from the Lebanese government, and discussed expanding financing for the private sector.
What to watch
- The IMF mission to Lebanon in November, and whether negotiations will advance on the financial gap and bank restructuring.
- The central bank's expected decision on raising monthly deposit withdrawals, and the response of the Depositors' Scream association, which threatened daily protests.
- The launch of public transport in Akkar on October 24, and the opening of pension and social protection applications starting October 19.
- The outcome of meetings between the Energy Ministry team and a Qatari team, and the fate of plans to operate the Jiyyeh and Zouk plants.