Fuel prices slip, cooking gas rises, as deposit talks speed up
Fuel prices fell in the latest pricing round: 95-octane from 2,802,000 to 2,795,000 lira per canister, 98-octane from 2,820,000 to 2,813,000 lira, and diesel from 2,614,000 to 2,589,000 lira, while the 10 kg cooking gas cylinder rose from 1,383,000 to 1,418,000 lira. The official dollar rate held at 89,500 lira, the euro rose from 100,064 to 100,376 lira, while gold fell from $4,182 to $4,176 an ounce and the 21-carat gram from $117.64 to $117.46. On the big files, central bank governor Karim Saeed said the bank's obligations to the banking sector are about $79 billion, a third of which may be contested, putting the likely net amount payable to depositors at around $50 billion. This coincides with a continuing political dispute over electricity, higher gas prices, and strikes in public education and the Lebanese University.
Fuel slips, cooking gas rises
Petrol and diesel prices fell in the latest pricing round: 95-octane dropped from 2,802,000 to 2,795,000 lira per canister, 98-octane from 2,820,000 to 2,813,000 lira, and diesel from 2,614,000 to 2,589,000 lira. In contrast, the household gas cylinder (10 kg) rose from 1,383,000 to 1,418,000 lira, directly affecting cooking and hot water bills at home. On a sensitive food file, a report says a tin of olive oil could reach about $200 this season, with exports down 53.7 percent in the first seven months of 2026, while FAO figures show 814 hectares damaged and losses exceeding $236 million since 2023.
Central bank, deposits and new figures
Central bank governor Karim Saeed said the bank's obligations to the banking sector amount to about $79 billion, and a third of that may be contested, which could put the likely net amount payable to depositors at around $50 billion, with good progress in talks with the IMF and hope that the financial gap law passes parliament by mid-2027. Separately, the central bank revoked the license of Bank Saderat Iran and removed it from the banking sector, with no detail yet on the fate of its five branches, accounts, deposits and about 70 employees. The bank is also studying raising monthly depositor payments: an extra $200 for beneficiaries of Circular 158, bringing the payment to $1,200, and $100 for Circular 166, bringing it to $600, paid via bank cards rather than cash and later deducted from the $100,000 cash refund amount — a move the "Cry of the Depositors" association opposes.
Electricity on the table — and telecom fines upheld
An official source in the Lebanese Forces told An-Nahar that the withdrawal of ministers backed by the party from the cabinet session was due to an attempt to "dilute" the electricity crisis, noting that Energy Minister Joe Saddi is asking for money owed by state institutions and that the solution requires rescheduling and then a moving tariff in line with global oil prices. In parallel, meetings continue in Beirut between a Qatari team and a team from the Energy Ministry under Minister Saddi to translate the outcomes of talks on the energy sector. Separately, the State Shura Council rejected requests by former telecom ministers to suspend the Court of Audit's rulings fining them millions of dollars, so those rulings remain in force until final judgments are issued. Work also continues on developing René Moawad Airport ahead of its opening set for 15 November by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, with the work area expanding from 2,700 to more than 4,000 square metres.
Education: strikes and pending files
Contract professors at the Lebanese University announced their strike will continue until the tenure (tafarrigh) file is approved, while the file of hourly-paid contract professors remains blocked by government obstacles, and reports speak of the academic year being suspended at the Faculty of Arts. In public education, the sector saw a surprise strike declared by the teachers' league over the Education Ministry's decision to halt about 400 teachers and educational counsellors in the afternoon shift dedicated to teaching Syrian refugee students, amid objections to Memorandum 198/M/2026, which removed more than 400 educational counsellors from their work. In another file, Labour Minister Mohammad Haidar chaired the national committee overseeing implementation of the pensions and social protection system to follow up on Law 319, and it was agreed that the Civil Service Council would announce the opening of applications starting 19 October.
Reforms, border crossings and taxes
A Lebanese delegation headed by Finance Minister Yassine Jaber took part in the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank Group in Bangkok, discussing financing for recovery projects, financial and tax reform, job creation and the modernisation of land crossings, and held meetings with the International Organization for Migration and an expanded meeting with the Syrian side, where it was agreed to form a joint technical working group. The financial gap law remains at the forefront of negotiations, with talk of limiting discussion to three issues: distributing banking sector losses, mechanisms and scheduling for repaying deposits, and the size of the state's contribution to restructuring, with Economy Minister Amer Bisat estimating total deposits at about $80 billion. On the tax file, Finance Committee chairman MP Ibrahim Kanaan asked the foreign and finance ministries to clarify Lebanon's interest in reviving the 1998 tax double-taxation treaty with Canada, warning against harming a community estimated at about 250,000 people.
What to watch
- The path of the financial gap law and IMF negotiations, with talk of agreement on principles before year-end and possible parliamentary approval by mid-2027
- The central bank's expected decision on raising depositor payments under Circulars 158 and 166, and depositor associations' reaction
- How the electricity crisis develops between the government and the withdrawn ministers, and the outcome of Qatari-Lebanese energy meetings
- Continued strikes at the Lebanese University and in public education, and the opening of applications for retirement under Law 319
- Household gas and olive oil prices as the harvest season begins, and the rehabilitation of land crossings and René Moawad Airport